Are commodities about the break out?

It’s been tough haul for commodities and related stocks for a while now. Take one look at US dollar chart you can see why. When the dollar is strong commodities are weak. Just the way it is. Here is a chart of the UUP which is a bullish dollar index fund.

uup3-22

That is what you call a strong trend.  The bullish chart of UUP is the exact opposite of the DBA chart (bullish commodities fund) as it stands now, the dollar looks to be pulling back, is it a pause to refresh the trend of is it turning over?

dba3-23

Time will tell. Remember anyone giving you a prediction is guessing. Watch the Charts. When the 5 EMA crosses the 20 SMA , TSI and adx confirm that is your signal. Click here if you would like a free copy of my trading system The Money Flow Cycles .

Yesterday was the signal for many short traders to cover in commodities and long dollar traders to lock in profits. Silver had nice day and is now on a BUY signal for me. I actually got long Thursday when price closed above 20 sma confirmed by TSI and adx. That is 3 of my 4 confirmation signals and plenty to initiate a trade.

slv3-22

 

Any pullback this week, which is likely and normal I will add to the trade as long as the 5/20 hold. If they don’t I’m out.  I am long Nat gas through UGAZNat gas finds its self range bound. In the Money Flow Cycles book there is a chapter on range bound markets. Two Weeks nat gas been locked into a predictable range. Not my type of trading.

oil3-20 nat3-22

I am long with the $.05 below support as my stop. The moving averages are trying to aligning correctly, triangle forming, the days are getting tighter in range. Look for a break out one way or the other very soon. OIl still a SELL no bottom picking wait for the indicators to signal.

Which way? Who knows. With dollar taking a pause, up most likely. All I can do is let price tell me. CEFL we are in a 1/2 position (1,000 shares)  dividends be paid Tuesday. $.34 = $340 Fast money Tradeslong SAND and CVX – so dollar dependent though… huh!

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